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Asset allocation: Your compass in stormy markets
August 26, 2008

As an investor, you face plenty of distractions. There are constant headlines about the latest big swings in the markets. And self-styled experts are always offering conflicting advice about how to time the markets or what hot stock you should be buying.

But don't let the tidal wave of information knock you off course. You can make investing simpler—and increase the chances of reaching your goals—by staying focused on your asset allocation.

What really drives investment returns
Asset allocation isn't as exciting as a banner headline about a 300-point move in the Dow, but it's what matters most in investing. Research dating back to a landmark 1986 study1 shows that, for broadly diversified portfolios, decisions about asset mix—the percentage of stocks, bonds, and cash you hold—have a far greater influence on investment results than specific mutual fund choices or market timing.

"Asset allocation should be a focal point for portfolio construction and maintenance," said Chris Philips, an analyst in Vanguard Investment Strategy Group. "It's crucial to maintain an appropriate allocation."

If you have a mix of stocks, bonds, and cash that's in keeping with your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, then there's no reason to make abrupt changes to your portfolio, Mr. Philips said. If you don't have an asset allocation plan, Vanguard's investor questionnaire can help you get started.

A strong foundation when the winds of change shift
It may be tempting to jump from one investment to another, especially when the markets are volatile. But many of the same studies that highlighted asset allocation's importance also found that a market-timing approach is often futile. Even investment professionals can't consistently predict the right moment to get in to or out of the markets.

A well-thought-out asset allocation plan can help you weather periods when the financial markets turn stormy, Mr. Philips said. If you understand why you have invested in each asset, then you have a better idea of what to expect from that asset over time. With stocks, for example, you know that there can be significant volatility. But it's this volatility that results in higher expected long-term returns for stocks compared with bonds or cash, which tend to be more stable and, therefore, lower-returning.

"A good asset allocation plan can help you stick to your guns and not overreact to short-term movements in the markets," Mr. Philips said.

Make sure you keep your balance
Having an asset allocation plan doesn't mean you can be completely hands-off in managing your portfolio. You'll need to make changes over time. For example, you may need to shift your allocation as you get closer to retirement, Mr. Philips said.

You also may need to make adjustments if recent market performance has thrown your asset mix off-kilter. If this year's downturn, for instance, has reduced your stock allocation five or more percentage points from your target, you may want to consider rebalancing to the level you had chosen.

Buying more of a beaten-down asset can be difficult. But if you don't rebalance, you can end up with a portfolio that's very different from—and potentially less suited to your long-term goals than—the one you started with.

1Brinson, Hood, and Beebower: "Determinants of Portfolio Performance," Financial Analysts Journal (1986, 1991).

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